2026-01-28 Benfica - Real Madrid match analysis, tips and predictions.

Match statistics: Benfica - Real Madrid

Benfica

UEFA Champions League - Round 8

20:00, January 28, 2026

Real Madrid

4.45

1.67

2.15

1.2

Math prediction: 2 — 1.67

Match prediction Benfica - Real Madrid

Match outcome

Real Madrid

win

Goals / Match

3.1

2.5+

45%

-3.5

74%

xG for the team (Home)

Benfica

expected 0 - 1 goal

xG for the team (Away)

Real Madrid

expected 2 - 3 goals

Trends

Outcomes

Real Madrid hasn't any defeat the 2nd half 7 matches in a row, 2 of them away

Real Madrid won the 2nd half 5 matches in a row, 1 of them away

Real Madrid hasn't any defeat the 1st half 6 matches in a row, 2 of them away

Real Madrid won 6 matches in a row, 2 of them are at away

Goals

Benfica in 20 of 25 matches has played over 1.5

Benfica has goals for in 20 of 25 matches, 1.84 on average

Benfica has goals for on home in the 1st half in 6 matches in a row

Real Madrid has goals for on away in the 2nd half in 6 matches in a row

Real Madrid has goals for in 25 of 28 matches, 2.29 on average

Real Madrid in 23 of 28 matches has played over 1.5

Tournament chart

Benfica

Real Madrid

Real Madrid power × 1.58 times greater 61.3%

Real Madrid better at attack 75%

Benfica better at defence 54%

Team comparison

Benfica

Real Madrid

Recent form

40%

60%

H2H strength

Goal realization

Poisson distribution ^[1]

36%

64%

Team power

38.8%

61.3%

[1] - The Poisson distribution is a mathematical model that efficiently predicts the outcome of a match, taking into consideration tournament indicators of teams, head-to-head matches, the attacking and defensive potential of each team.

The position of the teams: UEFA Champions League - Round 8

Real Madrid

71.43%

19:8

+11

3.86

2.71

1.14

71%

43%

Benfica

28.57%

6:10

-4

2.29

0.86

1.43

64%

18%

Benfica

Points and results

Segment table:

games

wins

29%

draws

losses

71%

games

wins

33%

draws

losses

67%

Real Madrid

Points and results

Segment table:

games

wins

71%

draws

losses

29%

games

wins

67%

draws

losses

33%

Benfica

Latest six matches

Latest form:

good

2025-12-22

Primeira Liga

Benfica

Famalicao

▸ 1

2025-12-28

Primeira Liga

SC Braga

Benfica

2026-01-03

Primeira Liga

Benfica

Estoril

▸ 3

2026-01-17

Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

Benfica

▸ 2

2026-01-21

UEFA Champions League

Juventus

Benfica

2026-01-25

Primeira Liga

Benfica

Estrela

▸ 4

Goals per match: 2.83

Goals 1st time: 1.67

Goals 2nd time: 1.17

Real Madrid

Latest six matches

Latest form:

very good

2025-12-14

La Liga

Alaves

Real Madrid

▸ 2

2025-12-20

La Liga

Real Madrid

Sevilla

▸ 2

2026-01-04

La Liga

Real Madrid

Real Betis

▸ 5

2026-01-17

La Liga

Real Madrid

Levante

▸ 2

2026-01-20

UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid

Monaco

▸ 6

2026-01-24

La Liga

Villarreal

Real Madrid

▸ 2

Goals per match: 3.67

Goals 1st time: 0.83

Goals 2nd time: 2.83

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